Grizzlies vs. Magic prediction and odds for Thursday, January 5 (Can Orlando cover at home?)

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The Memphis Grizzlies and Orlando Magic are both in the second game of a back-to-back on Thursday night, and both teams have thrived in that spot this season.

Ja Morant’s Grizzlies are 3-1 against the spread in the second game of a back-to-back in the 2022-23 campaign, while Paolo Banchero and the Magic have gone 4-2 ATS.

Something’s gotta give on Thursday.

The Grizzlies come into this game as road favorites, looking to take over the top spot in the Western Conference. Memphis has the same record as the Denver Nuggets at the moment, so a Denver loss on Thursday and a Memphis win would give it sole possession of the top spot in the West.

For Orlando, the playoffs seem to be a long shot right now, but the team is 6-4 in its last 10 games. The Magic have been solid at home this season (10-11 straight up), especially when you consider they are just 4-13 on the road.

The Grizz have won four straight games, but can they make it a fifth in this road matchup?

Here are the latest odds for this game, as well as my best bet for Grizzlies-Magic:

Grizzlies vs. Magic odds, spread and total

Grizzlies vs. Magic prediction and pick

There’s no doubt that the Grizzlies are the better team this season, ranking fifth in the NBA in net rating compared to the Magic at 26th.

Still, I think there is value in taking the Magic with the points in this matchup. Orlando has a lot of size it can throw at the Grizz down low, and the team has been elite as a home underdog in the 2022-23 season.

The Magic are 12-5 against the spread (covering 70.6 percent of the time) as home underdogs this season. They have also gone 9-8 straight up in those games, meaning they are winning outright more than losing when set as a dog in Orlando.

That could spell trouble for the Grizzlies, who haven’t been as effective on the road this season. They drop from fifth to 10th in the NBA in net rating on the road and are just 6-8-1 against the spread as road favorites.

The Grizz are winning those games by an average margin of victory of 3.1 points, so we may have some room to work with since Orlando is getting 6.5 in this game.

This isn’t an easy matchup for Orlando against the league’s No. 3 defense, but the Magic have been too good at home for me not to take the points with them on Thursday.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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