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There is no other way to say this, so I’m just going to say it.
I can’t miss.
I’m on the hottest betting stretch of my life in the NBA, hitting 11 consecutive bets over the last three days, and I don’t plan on slowing down tonight.
We have four games to dive into in the NBA, and I have a pick for three of them, including another first quarter bet (shouts to my guy Ben Heisler) after we hit on the New York Knicks last night.
If you’ve been tailing my picks this season, we’re sitting pretty, up over five units in the NBA. Why not make it four straight perfect slates?
NBA best bets today record to date
NBA best bets today
- Orlando Magic +6.5 (-110) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Denver Nuggets 1Q Spread -2 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
- Al Horford OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-115)
Orlando Magic +6.5 (-110) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Both of these teams are in the second leg of a back-to-back, a spot where they have thrived so far this season.
However, the Memphis Grizzlies have not been as good on the road, 10th in the NBA in net rating and 6-8-1 against the spread as road favorites, as they’ve been at home.
Sure, the Magic are one of the worst teams in the league, but they have been solid at home this season, and they can cover this spread against Memphis.
The Magic are 12-5 against the spread (covering 70.6 percent of the time) as home underdogs this season. They have also gone 9-8 straight up in those games, meaning they are winning outright more than losing when set as a dog in Orlando.
I’ve followed this logic on a few plays this week, and I’m willing to stick with that on Thursday night.
Denver Nuggets 1Q Spread -2 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
There isn’t a team in the NBA with a better net rating in the first quarter than the Denver Nuggets, who are +15.4 in the opening frame of games this season.
The Clippers are also positive in the first quarter, posting a net rating of +1.8. That’s still a huge gap against a Denver team that is one of the best in the NBA at home (14-3 straight up).
Paul George (hamstring, questionable) could miss this game, and the Nuggets have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA with the increased altitude. After two days off, I think Denver comes out firing at Ball Arena tonight.
Al Horford OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-115)
We’re finally getting a little value on Boston Celtics veteran big man Al Horford, who has seen his rebound prop drop from 6.5 to 5.5.
Horford is averaging 6.1 rebounds per game this season, but he has an extremely favorable matchup in primetime against the Dallas Mavericks.
Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in rebounding percentage, so Horford and the Celtics should be able to control the glass in this game.
The big man has cleared 5.5 rebounds in 17 of his 29 games this season, and Boston should come out motivated after a bad loss in Oklahoma City on Tuesday.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.